Grain Market Update 24th November

Commodity	Dec 2023 Dried €/T¹
IRL Feed Wheat¹	230-240
IRL Feed Barley¹	220-225
Paris MATIF Wheat²	222
Paris Oilseed Rape3	437.25
Maize ex. Port	225-235
Soya meal¹	600+

Market Prices and News 

• Wheat prices have dropped lower in the second half of November. Nearby MATIF Dec-23 contract closed at €222/t on Thursday of this week, this is the lowest price traded on this contract since the 31^stof May. 
• Prospects for a very large south American maize crop being available later in 2024 is pressuring global feed grain prices (AHDB).
• Grain exports continue to flow from Ukraine through the Black Sea humanitarian corridor which is also subduing global wheat prices. 
• Native spot prices have followed lower as a result, with wheat trading at  between €230-240/t  and barley €220-225/t. 
• Soya meal ex. port remains very volatile with prices in excess of €600/t.  
• New crop wheat futures for December 2024 are trading at a premium (+€13/t) to old crop with MATIF Dec-24 closing at €235/t on Thursday of this week. 
• Concerns over winter cereal planting in key producers such as France are providing some support to new crop futures. Agri-Mer said French farmers had sown 71% of the intended soft wheat area as of November 13th, this is down from 96% at this point in 2022. 
• Oilseed rape prices have remained steady in recent weeks, fears over dry weather in Brazil have supported global oilseed prices. MATIF new crop futures for Aug-24 closed at €441.50/t on Thursday of this week (24^th).

Global Grain Supply and Demand 

• The International Grains Council has forecasted declines for world barley production in 23/24 with global production reaching 143 million tonnes, below the 5-year average of 151 million tonnes.
• Global rapeseed stocks are forecast to tighten in 2023/24 in key producers Canada and Australia but remain significantly higher than the 21/22 season (IGC).
• Despite concerns over dry weather in key Brazilian, prospects for the soyabean crop remain very good, Agroconsult have forecast a record crop of 161.4 million tonnes, due to 2.9% rise in planted area.
• US winter wheat crop conditions are at 48% good/excellent compared with 32% a year ago.

Policy Update

• The plenary vote on the Sustainable Use of Pesticides (SUR) took place in the EU Parliament earlier this. In an unforeseen outcome, the controversial proposal was rejected with 299 votes against to 209 in favour. In a further very unusual development, the parliament voted against referring the proposal back to the Parliaments Environment Committee which is lead on the file.
• The EU council can continue to proceed with the amended proposal or the EU Commission may have to issue an entirely new proposal within the next mandate after the European elections take place in 2024. 
• IFA have been active on the SUR proposal throughout 2023 and travelled to Brussels before the plenary vote to meet with MEP’s and highlight the impacts the proposal would have on Irish agriculture.