Market Prices and News
| Commodity | May/June 2024 Dried €/T¹ | September 2024 Green €/T | Nov/Dec 2024 Dried €/T |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 243-245 | 220 | 255-260 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | N/A | 202 | 240-245 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | – | – | 269.25 |
| Oilseed Rape | – | 450 | 498 |
Global wheat prices increased significantly in the week ending to May 24th. MATIF Dec-24 wheat gained €14.50/t during the week and closed at €266.50/t. Prices rose again on Monday 27th to €274/t but have dropped back to close at €269.25/t on Tuesday.
Continued concerns for the Russian wheat harvest remain at the forefront of this price rally, analyst IKAR reduced its wheat production estimate down to 81.5MMT this week, which is down from 86MMT a month ago. The International Grains Council has reduced its forecast for Russian wheat to a higher 85.5MMT but this is down from earlier estimates of 90.4MMT.
Native new crop prices remain broadly similar to earlier in the month, Tirlan offered €202/t for green barley on May 28th, up €2/t on the May 14th offer, €220/t was offered for wheat, up €4/t. Prices for spot wheat are lower at €243-245/t with limited demand reported.
The FOB Creil malting barley price closed at €282/t on Thursday last (May 23rd), the average price for this contract portion now sits at €267.13/t for Boortmalt suppliers.
For oilseed rape, Paris futures for Nov-24 reached an 11-month high of €502.75/t on Thursday May 23rd, prices have dropped marginally this week to €498/t at the time of writing. Tirlan offered €450/t for green oilseed rape this week, up €10/t from two weeks earlier.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The International Grains Council has forecast global barley output to increase moderately in 2024/25. EU output is expected to rise, due to significantly higher production in Spain.
The IGC has forecast global oat production to rebound closer to the 5-year average production in key exporters, this follows on from a dip in production in 2023/24.
Global wheat consumption is expected to retreat year on year, due to smaller crops in key exporters and competition from feed alternatives (IGC).
The EU Commission MARS report has stated the yield prospects across combinable crops remain above the 5-year average at EU level but with notable contrasts across regions. The outlook across Spain and Portugal is much higher than normal but forecasts for western Europe and Italy have been slightly reduced to the wet weather conditions.
