| Commodity | €/t Feb/March 2025 | €/t Nov/Dec 25 Dried |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 245-250 | 245-250 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 230-235 | 230-235 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 234.25 | 235.75 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape | 542 | 490 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 14.01.25 10am
Market Prices and News
MATIF wheat futures rose over the Christmas period but markets and prices had been largely unchanged in the first week of January.
Publication of the January WASDE report by the USDA on Friday last week has injected a more bullish sentiment into markets this week at the time of writing. Final US corn and soy yields were revised down significantly by the USDA. National corn yields were pitched at 179.3 bushels/acre (4.55t/ac) compared with an expected 183.1 bushels/acre (4.65t/ac).
Currency fluctuations are affecting global grain markets at present, with the dollar trading at a two year high over the Christmas period. The euro/dollar exchange rate is at an all time low of (€1 = $1.02)
Markets will remain very responsive to economic signals ahead of the inauguration of US President elect Donald Trump in mid-January (AHDB)
Native grain prices have increased since the pre-Christmas period. Dried feed barley prices are trading between €230-235/t up €10-15/t on recent months with dried feed wheat increasing by a similar amount to trade at €245-250/t. Prices for new crop futures for Nov/Dec 25 are broadly similar.
Paris oilseed rape prices have increased for nearby contracts due to concerns over soybean crop condition in Argentina and high EU demand for all oilseeds. New crop futures for autumn 2025 have recovered strongly from a slump in early December broadly to trade in the €485-491/t range this week.
Chicago maize futures have recovered in recent weeks to reach $4.60/bu for nearby Mar-25 contracts – the highest level since June 2024 (Agritel). Markets have risen further this week to $4.74/bu on bullish news on corn yields and stocks.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
European soft wheat production is forecast to rebound by 11% to 125.6MMT in 2025 by analyst Strategie grains. This is up from 114.2MMT produced in 2024 but below the 2019-2023 average production of 126.9MMT.
The French wheat area has recovered by 8.7% with Germany reporting a 12.3% increase, following much better autumn weather conditions in late October November.
Industry Association Cocereal has predicted an increase in EU barley production for 2025, +1.5MMT year-on-year to a total of 51.9MMT. This is higher than Strategie
Grains who pitch production for 2025 at 50.6MMT, relatively unchanged from 2024.
Warm weather conditions in Russia are being closely monitored as this could impact on the winter hardiness of the crop should more typical cold weather be forecast (Sovecon). Russian and Black Sea supplies remain a key overall driver of global wheat markets.
WASDE January Highlights
US wheat area for 2025/26 is estimated to increase by 2% on 2024/25 which was above market expectations.
US corn production for 2024/25 has been revised down by 7MMT to 377.6MMT while soy production has been reduced by 2.6MMT to 118.8MMT.
Global corn stocks have also been revised lower by the USDA to sit at 293.3MMT which compares to 317.7MMT this time last year.
USDA did not change EU wheat stocks versus last month, these are estimated at 10.6MMT compared with 15.5MMT at the same time in 2023/24
