Market Prices and News
| Commodity | May 2024 Dried €/T¹ | Nov/Dec 2024 Dried €/T |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 215-220 | 225-230 |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 210 | 210-215 |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 204.50 | 222.75 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape² | 449 | 455 |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 17.04.24 4pm
Global wheat prices have largely remained static and traded in a sideways pattern in April to date which contrasts with the upward trend experienced in March.
At a European level, weak demand still exists for EU grain as prices still remain uncompetitive with wheat from a Black Sea origin.
Native prices reported to IFA for nearby dried put wheat at €215-220/t with barley at €210/t. Forward prices for dried November wheat are €225-230/t
The Boortmalt price average mechanism for 2024 malting barley commenced on April 4th, prices in week 1 and 2 on the FOB Creil closed at €260/t and €257/t respectively.
French spring barley sowing is now virtually completed with the area forecast to increase by 10.7% to 0.5 million hectares, compared with 2023 (Agreste). Similarly, German cooperative body DRV has forecast German spring barley production to increase by 27% in 2024 with an expected plant area of 356k hectares.
MATIF rapeseed futures have slid back this week following price pressure on other oilseeds such as a palm or soybeans. Prices rose strongly (+€30-35/t) for rapeseed throughout March due to reduced European crop forecasts for 2024.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
The European wheat harvest is expected to be the lowest since 2020 at 120.8 million tonnes, declining by 4.8 million tonnes YOY according to the EU Commission MARS report, however, private analyst Strategie Grains has forecast EU wheat at 121.8, 1 million tonnes higher.
Ukraine’s harvest for 2024 is expected to fall to 52 million tonnes down from 58 million tonnes in 2023 according to the Ukrainian Farm Ministry.
US farmers intend to plant 5% less corn in 2024 relative to 2023 (USDA) with a greater swing to soybean production forecast.
Maize supply from Brazil for 2023/24 remains high but significant differences exist in the April forecasts for the crop by different agencies – USDA estimate (124MMT) and CONAB (Brazil – 110.96MMT).
Forecasts for the Russian wheat harvest in 2024 have been as high as 93 million tonnes, analyst SovEcon reports that hot and dry conditions are now taking hold in the far south and this could be an important watchpoint in the coming weeks.
