| Commodity | Nov/Dec 2024 Dried €/T1 | Nov/Dec 2025 |
| IRL Feed Wheat¹ | 230-235 | – |
| IRL Feed Barley¹ | 220 | – |
| Paris MATIF Wheat² | 222 | 236 |
| Paris Oilseed Rape | 508.25 | 475 |
| Maize ex. Port | 215-220 | N/A |
² Source: Euronext correct as of 23.10.24 12pm
Market Prices and News
MATIF wheat futures for Dec-24 have generally remained relatively unchanged or have traded sideways since the last market report.
The same sentiments continue to underpin nearby markets, with poor overall European cereal production balanced out by a rapid pace of competitively priced exports from the Black Sea region.
French wheat production is now the lowest for over 40 years at 25.43MMT (French Ag Ministry).
Similar conditions exist for maize globally with a poor European crop outweighed by very large US corn production, with very rapid harvest pace and the second largest Brazilian crop ever produced (119.7MMT).
Tirlan announced grain prices for 2024 on October 23rd , the Co-op will pay €210/t and €220/t for green feed barley and wheat respectively, this is inclusive of €10/t trading bonus. Full list of prices is published here https://www.tirlanfarmlife.com/news/tirlan-confirms-grain-pricing-for-harvest-2024
Native dried prices remain relatively similar at €230-235/t for feed wheat and €215-€220/t for feed barley.
The gap between old crop (Dec-24) and new crop (Nov-25) wheat futures has increased in recent weeks for both and London wheat futures. Paris Nov-25 futures are trading at €236/t versus €222.25/t for nearby Nov-24 contracts.
This increased spread is due to slight concerns over planting in key export countries. Dry weather has affected winter wheat establishment across much of the Russian plains while France, a key EU producer has had its wettest September in 25 years.
Oilseed rape prices have trended upwards in recent weeks despite generally weaker soybean prices. Falling global oilseed rape production in the EU (-13%), Australia (-7%) combined with good demand and lower reported palm oil stocks has boosted prices to €508/t for Nov-24 and €475/t for Nov-25.
Global Grain Supply and Demand
In the October WASDE report the USDA has forecast for global 2024/25 wheat production. Global supplies were reduced by 1.9MMT to 1060.3MMT. Ending stocks are projected at 257.7MMT, this is the lowest value since 2015/16.
US corn yields are now projected at 183.8 bushels/acre with US corn production estimated at 386 million tonnes for 2024/25, a rise of 432k tonnes from September.
Analysts Sovecon and IKAR have forecast the 2025 Russian wheat crop between a range of 80-83MMT which is very similar to 2024.
